It hurt to have to wait two years – but how much faith do you really have that the DFB team can become world champions at the mammoth tournament in Mexico, Canada and the USA? Flashback: Just hours after Germany was unfortunately eliminated by Spain from the 2024 European Championship at home (keyword: Cucurella), coach Julian Nagelsmann said a memorable sentence in front of the assembled press. “It hurts that you have to wait two years to become world champion.”
He then answered the open mouths of the journalists with a laugh: “You like that statement, your eyes are getting big. What can I say that we are eliminated in the preliminary round? Of course we want to become world champions, every team wants that.”
Who wants to contradict the national coach? Maybe Curaçao is also secretly hoping for the pot. But when the Germans’ first opponent in the tournament, which sounds more like a cocktail than a challenge, ends up going home with zero points, then the players there just sit in the sun on the beach and don’t care about it. If Germany doesn’t make it through to the next round after two botched World Cups, then they will fly back to a country that is now getting rashes on a daily basis from words like pension reform, fuel discounts and inflation. So it’s better that the footballers enjoy the maximum of five weeks away.
Gigantomania or sobriety
What chances does the DFB team have when it starts on Thursday (June 11th)? The final will take place on July 19th at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. The halftime show alone with Madonna, Shakira and BTS is amazing, for some ticket prices you can get a house in the States. No matter who plays here, it will be a giant duel with two teams that have overcome some adversity and freak weather after eight games.
Germany is encouraging itself: 2014 was also under the scorching sun in Brazil. The difference is still clear. Based on the summer fairy tale, Jogi Löw formed an eleven that was at least in the semi-finals of every tournament since 2006, had clear leaders in the team and even managed to rejuvenate itself in tournament mode in 2010. The truth is of course that the 7-1 win against the hosts was a casino number in football history and with a bit of bad luck and without libero Manuel Neuer it could have ended in the round of 16 against Algeria.
Maybe that’s why Julian Nagelsmann should show less this game for motivation in the comfortable team hotel, but rather the one against Algeria, where hardly anything worked and yet the decisive goal was scored. Or even better – the quarter-final game against France in 2014. The Bleus were of course not underdogs against the DFB, but they were boiled off a corner kick after an early goal from Matts Hummels. The same Equipe Tricolore may be waiting in the quarter-finals 12 years later if both teams finish first in the group. And as we recently saw, successful set pieces are even more of a means to victory – especially against fast-paced, clever teams.
Set the course in the preliminary round
But after all the injuries from the last two tournaments, we should first focus on the preliminary round anyway. Curaçao, as exotic as it may seem, is of course the lucky chance for the first game that only the lottery offers. Memories of Saudi Arabia (2002) and Costa Rica (2006) are awakened. The Germans, who are more talented at the front than at the back, can do something for the goal difference. Six days later, Ivory Coast awaits, having just beaten France 2-1 in a friendly. The second game, a draw or defeat, which is notoriously difficult for the DFB, cannot be ruled out if there is enough carelessness.
So the game against Ecuador wouldn’t be a big deal (because there are even some third-placed teams in the group), but it would be an assessment of our current situation. Because if Germany comes second, another group runner-up awaits them in the round of 16. That would be someone from Group I, which includes France, Norway, Senegal and Iraq. Norway or Senegal would probably be the most likely option, the Scandinavians perhaps a little more. They recently posed as Vikings and have Erling Haarland. They wouldn’t go into the match against Germany unmotivated. It would be an inconvenient affair.
Nagelsmann conducted his role interviews for such moments. In the last test games it became clear that Havertz would probably be in the attack because he harmonizes better with the talented Wirtz and Musiala than the out-of-step Woltemade. If things don’t go well, Undav is sent in – probably very early in the game for tactical reasons. The Stuttgart player is currently in brilliant form and after his coach’s unfortunate insults after a top performance, who wants to deny him being motivated to the core.
Will there be revenge?
Success in the USA, Canada and Mexico will probably not come from the offensive, but – it remains a truism – from the compact defense. In the DFB team, it starts with Nmecha and Pavlovic, who, as clearers and playmakers from their own third, lay the foundation so that there are not too many counterattacks against fast opponents. As a full-back, Kimmich will rotate towards the middle more often, as has already been seen recently. So he doesn’t have to give up playing the game. That doesn’t have to be a disadvantage for the defense.
With Nico Schlotterbeck and Jonathan Tah there are also two central defenders who complement each other well and are good for nothing. Schlotterbeck in particular is good for a surprising goal, but also for a fatal tackle. And how Kimmich and Brown, who is apparently now on the other side, would react to Olise, Mbappé and Dembelé cannot be imagined due to the lack of recent performance comparisons.
Oh yes, if only a second place in the preliminary round is enough and Norway/Senegal are beaten, Brazil could wait in the round of 16. Coach Ancelotti, still an Italian but decorated with five Champions League titles, should prevent the team from scoring as many goals in the end, but the hunger for revenge could be extremely great. Let’s agree on this: Germany should come first.
Above all, there are a few remaining factors that could play a role at the Trump World Cup: fitness, little bad luck with injuries (unfortunately Karl has already been hit, he would definitely have been good for a few moments of surprise), resilience against travel and weather stress, silence about political conditions that football cannot change anyway, enough teammates in the team in the Mario Kart challenges in the hotel.
Develop ambition early on
A world championship of extremes also needs a winner who can shrug off or absorb this gigantomania. While Nagelsmann can hardly be said to have modest wishes for success, this is not quite as clear when it comes to the men on the pitch. For many it is their first World Cup, their ambition will probably only be ignited when there is a corresponding sense of success – and that could also be balls hammered under the roof of the stadium or robust duel victories.
If the DFB team wants to achieve something in this tournament with dull grass surfaces and miserable drinking breaks, physicality should play a big role. This has been the case several times in the past, for your own safety. And during the great triumph with Leverkusen, the magician Wirtz showed himself to be both a delicate technician and a brutal plow, who is not above winning the ball in his own box if necessary.
World Cup forecast: It’s over in the quarterfinals
Germany will play a better tournament than in Qatar and Russia. This time it will go beyond the preliminary round. Whether you come first or second would not be decisive for the course of the tournament; in the quarterfinals there would almost certainly be an opponent who is either a class stronger or a bit more possessed to win. Forecast: As with the European Championships 2024, it will go to the quarter-finals, then after what will probably be an open game it will still be over.
In 1994 the USA only made it to the round of the last 8, then Bulgaria was too big a hurdle. At that time, the DFB team tripped themselves up with a bad mood and a certain arrogance. That won’t be the case in this tournament. In the end it could mean: a lot of potential, superb in attack at times, but a little too good for the title.